Thursday, January 18, 2007

 

Phillies Off-Season Report

So I have been focusing more on the two winter sports teams in Philly lately. Both are struggling along and playing the string out. So with Spring Training less than a month away, it is now time to turn my attention to my first love, the Philadelphia Phillies. Everyone knows the big moves, Wes Helms and Freddy Garcia, but now I want to evaulate the mirad of minor moves that Pat Gillick has made over the past month.

Gillick brought in both Rod Barajas and Jayson Werth, who are both basically guarenteed spots on the opening day roster. Barajas could form a solid catching platoon with Carlos Ruiz. Barajas will probably not improve over his career numbers of .240 batting average and .282 on-base percentage. Ruiz has a higher ceiling but pairing those two behind the plate would be adequate. I believe the catching position is going the way of the running back in football. In football more and more teams are using two backs equally instead of one back. The catching position is following the same path. Unless, a team has a great catcher, teams are beginning to split time more evenly between catchers. Chris Coste will compete with both Barajas and Ruiz for playing time.

Jayson Werth is signed to play all three outfield positions and an optimistic outlook has him replacing either Pat Burrell or Aaron Rowand in the starting line-up. Werth has been plagued by injuries and missed all of last year with a wrist injury. Werth's health will play a big part of whether he will be productive for the Phillies this year. If nothing else, Werth will provide depth off the bench.

The bullpen has been a problem spot last year and little has been done to improve it. Gillick is hoping on health for Tom Gordon, development by Matt Smith, consistency from Geoff Geary, and a return to his rookie form from Ryan Madson. He is also hoping to catch lightning in a bottle from some minor signings. Rule 5 picks Alfredo Simon and Jim Ed Warden would have to have impressive springs to gain a roster spot. The Phillies than picked Anderson Garcia off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. He will likely start the season at Triple A, Ottawa. Gillick's latest signing is Dominican pitcher, Antonion Alfonseca (who I met over Thanksgiving when my baseball team traveled to the Domican to play). Alfonseca has been injured and ineffective recently although by all accounts he is performing well in winter ball. Alfonseca would be a wild card if he could put together a productive season for the Phils. That, I believe, is highly unlikely.

The most recent rumor has the Phillies interested in free agent pitcher, Brian Lawrence. Lawrence was injured last year and has been a starter his entire career. Lawrence best year was 2004 when he went 15-14 with a 4.12 ERA. The Phillies could be trying to sign him as an insurance starter or with the notion of moving him to the bullpen.

Aaron Rowand avoided arbitration by signing a one year deal for 4+ million dollars. Right now, he is penciled in as the starting centerfielder. Chase Utley and Brett Myers who are also both up for arbitration have been slower to sign extensions. I have heard rumors of a four year offer to Utley but I'm not sure about how truthful that is. Either way, I would like to see Utley get locked into a long-term contract. Brett Myers on the other hand is an interesting story. The Phillies rejected the Blue Jays offer of Alex Rios. Myers has also been reportedly unhappy with the Phillies one-year offer. I feel that it would be downright foolish to trade Brett Myers for anybody. This team needs pitching not hitting. Myers is developing into a top of the rotation starter (although slower than hoped). He could form a great 1-2 punch with Cole Hamels down the road. Hopefully, the Phillies and Myers can agree on a deal before arbitration becomes nasty. He will be very valuable to the Phillies this season.

Most recently the Phillies signed Greg Dobbs off waivers from the Seattle Mariners. In 27 AB's last year with the Mariners, Dobbs hit .370 with 3 doubles and one triple. He will be an upgrade over Danny Sandoval and could be very important spelling Chase Utley. That would allow Utley to stay fresh for the entire season.

For the Phillies to achieve their goal of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 1993, they will need contributions from some of the players here. Barajas, Werth, and Alfonseca are probably the three most important but contributions from the likes of Greg Dobbs and some other young bullpens pitchers wouldn't hurt. It is almost baseball season. I can smell it in the air.

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Comments:
Good analysis. Our bullpen blows. I do like the pickup of Jim Ed Warden, I think he's a Rule 5 that will stick...but will Manuel use him?

Burrell and Rowand deserve to start because each is better than Werth, but Werth is a solid 4th outfielder.

I also agree that trading Brett Myers aways for anything short of Miguel Cabrera, A-Rod, or Manny would be foolish.
 
spring training is so close i can't wait. this is the year
 
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