Saturday, August 12, 2006

 

Pat the Overpaid Bat?


Pat Burrell had a big game helping the Phillies defeat the Reds in 14 innings last night. He had an RBI single in the first then crushed an RBI triple to give the Phillies the lead in the eighth inning. He even gave a fist pump after the triple and looked like he was having fun something that I think has been missing from his game for a while. When Burrell first arrived in Philly, I envisioned a slugger who would hit fourth in the lineup for years to come. A player the other manager would intentionally walk even if it loaded the bases in the bottom of the 14th. He never blossomed into that player. Along with Bobby Abreu has drawn much critism for never leading the Phillies to the playoffs. There are many reasons for his stunted growth. I believe the foot problems have been a large part of that. I also believe that somewhere along the way Burrell stopped having fun and started to press. Hopefully Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are good influences and Burrell finds that desire again.


At age 29, Burrell's numbers are what they are and will probably not flucuate much. His average per 162 games are as follows: .259/31/106 with 167 SO and 91 BB. This years numbers are very similiar: .261/23/73 with 94 SO and 64 BB. By the end of the year these numbers will be almost identical. The problem is not his numbers but his salary. If he was making 4 or 5 million dollars a year instead of 9.75 he would be a good player. He may be in a platoon situation since he hits 84 points higher against lefties. To get a perspective lets compare Burrell to four current players: Ken Griffey Jr., Garret Anderson, JD Drew, and Shawn Green.

This year Griffey will make 9 million dollars. He hits third in the wild card leading Reds lineup. He is currently hitting .241/23/63. The home runs and RBIs are almost identical but his average is 20 points lower than Burrell's. Yet he continues to hit third and for the now the everyone is still chasing the Reds in the wild card race.

Garrett Anderson will earn 10.75 million this year from the Angels. Anderson's stats are currently .272/12/63. Anderson has the third highest average on the Angels, the third most home runs and the third most RBIs yet the Angels are right in the thick of the American League West title. Burrell has better power numbers but is hitting 10 points lower but also making one million less.

Next is everybody's favorite, JD Drew. Drew is an interesting comparision because Burrell was drafted the year after the Phillies could not sign Drew and Drew is only one year older. This year Drew will make 11.4 million and is hitting .277/11/63. His home runs are obviously lower than Burrell's total as are his RBI numbers. He holds a big advantage in the average which is very important. Drew is a big part of the NL West leading Los Angles Dodgers.

Last is Shawn Green who will make 10 million dollars in 2006. His current stats are .285/10/48. He has obviously hit for a high average but his power numbers are low for someone making 10 million. Green, though is a very important part of the Diamondbacks who are currently ahead of the Phillies in the wild card race.

So to summarize, Burrell is not a bad player just overpaid for his production. The other players mentioned play on teams that all have better records than the Phillies. All these players make salaries comparable to Burrell's and have stats comparable to his. If the Phillies had a better lineup, stronger starting pitching, and lower expectations Burrell would be a solid player. If Burrell would be able to hit sixth in the lineup instead of fifth his production would be better. There would be much less pressure and he would be a feared sixth hitter on pace for over 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Yes he does have room for improvement. If he could cut down his strikeouts it would invariably raise his average because more balls are being put in play. He also needs to get completely healthy also so he can play at the top of his game. He has proved he has the ability with good years in 2002 and 2005. A perfect lineup would look something like this:
CF somebody that can hit leadoff
SS Rollins
2B Utley
1B Howard
RF Delluci
LF Burrell
A new catcher and 3B will fill out the lineup. With this lineup and improved pitching this team could be right in the thick of things with Burrell. Burrell will always be overpaid but can be a productive par of a lineup.

Comments:
You raise a very good point. If Burrell was on another team with lower expectations, a smaller market with a smaller salary, he'd be looked upon much more positively.

However...

A person's stats are never completely hollow, but his have a definite hollow resonance. As I wrote on my site, there are a lot of stats that show Burrell could have even more RBIs if he did better with runners in scoring position. If you look at percentage of RBI opportunities, Burrell does pretty poor compared to the rest of the NL.

A lot of it boils down to how he approaches things when he has two strikes. Take just half of those instances where he is called out, turn them into hits, and his average would probably be 10-15 points higher.

I also noticed his fist pump on the triple, and it was great to see. Hopefully this changes things for him a bit.
 
i agree with your assesment of his approach with two strikes. both utley and howard hit very well with two strikes so may if burrell can learn from them he can make improvements. i found an website that lists players that are similiar to burrell

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burrepa01.shtml
 
Good insight on Burrel and the comparison. He is a good fit in the lineup. Filling the 3rd Base position will be crucial for the Phils. If he can be a leadoff hitter then the lineup is solid.

The problem I notice is Rollins and Rowand are very simular hitters meaning one of them may have to go to find a true leadoff hitter. Bourn may be an option (one that probably is not ready yet) at CF. Rollins is one of the best SS and a keeper at this point. He would be best at 2nd or 7th in the lineup.

Burrel is good at 5th or 6th in the lineup and is very productive. Delluca has been a pleasant surprise and I would like him to stay next year.
 
i really like bourn but i think he may still be a year away but he has lots of potential
 
Burrell is overpaid, but he's a good old fashioned right handed slugger.
 
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