Friday, October 06, 2006

 

The Phillies: Rotation

The next installment is the pitching staff. What can be done and what should be done. As I see it Brett Myers and Cole Hamels are definites to be back in the rotation next year. They form a formidable 1-2 punch when Myers is on. Hamels looks primed to become a big time pitcher and the kind of pitcher you would like to throw out on the mound two times during a playoff series. Jon Lieber is also likely to return since one year remains on his contract. There is a chance that he could be traded over the off-season if a deal could be reached. So as I see it there are probably two spots open in the rotation.

Jamie Moyer and the Phillies have a mutual 4.75 million dollar option and he has hinted that he enjoyed his two months in Philly but also greatly missed his family which remained in Seattle. Randy Wolf is also a free agent who could be re-signed but will also get looked at from numerous other teams. Wolf made 9 million this year and will take a steep decrease in salary next year. It is said that a pitcher is much better and stronger two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Wolf had his struggles this year but also showed flashes where he pitched well. He is also relatively young at 30 years old. The Phillies have hinted that only one of these two will be brought back next year so let’s look at the alternative options.

There seems to be no real possibilities from within the organization. The Phillies are loaded with pitching prospects but no are close to the major league level. Gavin Floyd is headed to the Arizona Fall League to hopefully get his confidence back and learn to pitch again. Floyd won a job out of Spring Training but failed miserably. I believe he will never be what Ed Wade envisioned him to be when he drafted Floyd in the first round. Maybe a good fall could lead to a trade where the Phillies get something in return. The Phillies seem consent to give Floyd one more chance to prove himself. My idea would be to try to move him to the bullpen where he could use his curveball more without worrying about seeing a hitter twice in a game. Eude Brito may get a look depending on who is brought in during the off-season. I don’t think he has what it takes to make it as a consistent starting pitcher. He may be a viable relief candidate but not a starter. The one pitcher from within the organization who I thought could be in the rotation next year was Scott Mathieson. He will not be available though because he will be rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Phillies go into Spring Training needing to fill in the rotation from within, they will be in major trouble thus let us look at the outside possibilities.

There are a few high-profile pitchers out there. Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt are both on the open market but I would be very surprised if either were even considered seriously by Gillick. Gillick’s philosophy is to build pitching from within and spend money on hitters. I like his approach but this year there needs to be some money devoted towards pitching. There are some average pitchers available. They are LHP Ted Lilly, RHP Tony Armas Jr, and RHP Wade Miller. Miller is especially interesting since he is from around Philly and was also recovering from surgery. Another far-fetched option would be Kerry Wood. Wood has never been healthy but he could be a starter or reliever. Andy Pettite is also a free agent. The Phillies have long been interested in him, but I don’t think anything will come of it. Pettite will either stay in his hometown, Houston, or return to New York.

There are also some options via trade. Carl Pavano is reportedly on the block because of his injuries and covering up an auto accident. He does have a high salary, but the Yankees would probably pick up part of his salary. Tim Hudson also may be traded this year. He has never become the consistent starter the Braves thought they were getting from the A’s. Freddy Garcia may also be available from the White Sox (Aaron Rowand for Garcia?). Garcia also struggled with consistency this year but would be a good addition behind Hamels and Myers. Dontrelle Willis is always reportedly on the trading block but that is a long shot at best. I want to throw out one other name. Curt Schilling. The Red Sox are coming off a disappointing season and may look to deal many of their older players. I would be surprised if Schilling was traded but if he is dealt, Philly is a very good possibility. Schilling said before he was traded to Boston that he would like to return to Philly but Ed Wade would not make a deal (Thanks Ed).

So what would I do? I would bring back Moyer and Wolf. I would send out the same starting rotation as this year. I would look into some possible trades. I might look to acquire someone like Pavano or Garcia. Of course I would investigate bringing Schilling back. If a pitcher were acquired via trade, I would look to trade Jon Lieber.

Next a look at the bullpen.

Comments:
I agree on Floyd he may be best suited for the bullpen. Gillick already says he expects Brito to be a reliever also. So he is not an option at this point. Wade Miller he may be a good chance to take on the 5th spot. I only expect either Wolfe or Moyer to be signed with Moyer the prefered.
I would mention out of the Minors we may see Sergovia, Gonzalez, JA Happ, Germano, or Mazone next year. It is my opinion that they will not be ready in spring to jump to the majors but rather help during the season. Mazone is interesting as he isn't really a prospect but has really outpitched all expectations and maybe of value. Germano has some ML experience and it may be best to consider him the 6th SP for the team. We see each year where a team needs a spot starter or a fillin for injury. So have 6 or 7 starters and stashing 1 or 2 in the minors is a good idea. Gonzalez and Sergovia are good prospects with high ceilings that could make an impact during the 2nd half next year
 
Dane- excellent break down.

Here's my take-

1) If possible, I would prefer the end-of-the-year rotation to return for a full season (Hamels, Myers, Lieber, Moyer, and Wolf). The 1st 3 are under contract. Phils want Moyer back, but does Moyer want the Phils back? Will Wolf give the Phils a hometown discount? Because honestly, if we'd have had that rotation all season we'd still be playing today.

2) Trades- assuming Wolf and/or Moyer are gone I like the Rowand for Garcia trade. I dislike any scenario involving Pavano.

3)Free Agents- not too many sexy names out there besides the unattainable (Zito/Schmidt). Armas Jr. might work, Lilly has been decent, but Wolf is as good or better than them, so keep Wolf.

4) From within- I think Germano has a future. But I'd rather him be the 6th starter (when needed for various reasons). I can't stand Floyd and want him traded for anything remotely worth anything.
 
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